Will "Divergent" Be A Hit?

With so many failed film adaptations of popular young-adult novels in the past year alone, can 'Divergent' break through the clutter and be the next hit that the genre and Hollywood so desperately need?

In today's culture you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who doesn't know anything about Twilight or The Hunger Games. These two young-adult series broke down barriers and proved — with box office dominance and fervent fan-bases — that these types of stories have a place in the world of blockbuster cinema and caused a surge in film adaptations of young-adult book series. Sadly, if you asked a stranger on the street today, I bet they wouldn't know a thing about The Host, Beautiful Creatures, The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones or even last month's Vampire Academy. After this string of failures, it appears studios across Hollywood have finally realized getting people to show up to this new sub-genre is easier said than done. On March 21, Divergent, the latest attempt to be the "new" Twilight or The Hunger Games, hits theaters, and studio executives and young adult authors alike are holding their breath in hopes that Divergent will be the next pop culture phenomenon.

Adapted from the novel by Veronica Roth, who recently championed the film adaptation with a rave review of her own, Divergent takes place in a futuristic Chicago where the population is split into five factions based on each citizen's greatest asset. 16-year-old Tris (Shailene Woodley) discovers she is "Divergent," meaning she fits into more than one faction. In this world, the trait is highly dangerous and unpredictable which leads to a war between Tris, and others like her, and the government at large trying to eliminate those who are "Divergent" from their society.

At this point, it's fairly clear that Divergent isn't going to completely bomb. All three of Veronica Roths' books have been in the Top 10 on the Amazon Best-Seller list for a lengthy period of time and its fan-base already seems larger than those of other would-be franchises. However, the biggest question looming over the films release is how great of an impact it will actually have. When Twilight and The Hunger Games both premiered, they didn't just make a lot of money, they ignited a worldwide conversation and an unstoppable buzz that led their first film releases to ridiculously long theatrical runs and unavoidable word-of-mouth. You literally couldn't turn on the TV or open a magazine without seeing something about the series or its stars. Twilight in particular, turned Kristen Stewart, Robert Pattinson and Taylor Lautner into global superstars. For years, you'd be hard pressed to find a magazine that wasn't featuring at least one of them. The Hunger Games catapulted Jennifer Lawrence into the stratosphere of pop culture awareness. For Divergent, the question remains how big will stars Shailene Woodley and Theo James get and will the series pop culture impact lead to a full-blown franchise?

Just last week, Woodley was featured on the cover of the latest The Hollywood Reporter with one of those always ridiculous comparison headlines: "the next Jennifer Laurence?" These headlines are so dumb. For one, they suggest only one female can rule Hollywood at a time and second, she is her own person, she's not the "next" anyone, she's the first and last Shailene Woodley. Annoying press aside, all signs point toward big things for Woodley. In real life, she appears genuine with a great personality that never seems to be trying too hard and she has the acting cred — a critically acclaimed performance in The Descendants — to back it all up. Theo James is more of a question mark. His largest credit outside of this role is the lead role in CBS' short-lived drama Golden Boy. Then again, Robert Pattinson was a relative unknown when he was cast as Edward Cullen in Twilight and we all know how that turned out.

Another factor that seems to be leaning in Divergent's favor, opposed to those other failed adaptations I mentioned earlier, is it seems to be boasting fairly strong awareness levels. The marketing team at Lionsgate/Summit (the company behind both Twilight and The Hunger Games) have done strong work in proving to the mainstream media that this release is indeed an event for everyone and not just fans of the book. The trailer releases have been strategic but not overbearing and the tabloid and talk show circuit has also proven beneficial. Magazine covers, features and appearances on major morning and late-night shows are of paramount importance — not only to appease existing fans of the franchise, but also to increase awareness to the casual moviegoer. This mainstream attention and slow building "buzz" has already put Divergent on a higher playing field than that of say Beautiful Creatures or The Host.

Initial tracking for the film was released about a week ago and early predictions are looking at around a $40-$50 million dollar opening weekend. This is a solid number and one that Lionsgate/Summit is probably very happy with but it doesn't suggest Divergent will be quite as big as Twilight's opening weekend and nowhere nears The Hunger Games opening frame. However, advance sale tickets for the film began on Fandango on Tuesday, March 4 and it appears the film's momentum is growing. Per Fandango, over half of the site's ticket sales for that day were for Divergent and it was outselling the second place holder by a margin of five tickets to one. If this kind of sell-out behavior continues over the next couple of weeks, it is looking like Divergent could easily open in the $65-$70 million dollar frame and pending the final marketing push — it could go even higher.

Personally, I hope Divergent is a big 'ole hit. I think young-adult tentpoles are imperative to the movie industry in today's culture. Not only do they bring massive business to multiplexes everywhere, but these types of franchises create such a fervent passion and energy in their audience that is quite simply unmatched elsewhere — even when comparing it to some of the biggest male-driven franchises. These types of films event-ize the movie-going experience which is everything Hollywood, and those that profit from its success, want to happen. With so many superhero and fantasy driven blockbusters, I think a series like Divergent is necessary to break up the monotony that the movie industry so easily falls into. The fact that its success will also help drive studios to take more chances on new ideas and stories is just the cherry on top.

The Final Theatrical Trailer For Divergent:

Divergent hits theaters nationwide on March 21 and tickets are available now at Fandango.

Update: Divergent opened to an estimated $56 million dollars over its opening weekend. Perhaps, this will be the first Y.A. series to find a very comfortable (and profitable) middle ground between box office juggernaut and complete flop. Here's to Insurgent!